Unraveling the Aggregation of Public Opinion: A Study of the 1946 Domestic Survey Conducted by Shanghai’s Wen Wei Po

Abstract: In October 1946, the Readers’ Voices supplement of Shanghai’s Wen Wei Po conducted a public opinion poll on the presence of U.S. troops in China and the ongoing civil war, attracting nearly 20,000 participants. The results revealed strong public sentiment: the overwhelming majority of respondents called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the cessation of the civil war. Several factors, including Wen Wei Po’s prior promotional efforts for this survey, its longstanding political leanings, and the structure of the questionnaire and answer options, helped explain the poll’s outcome. The poll’s outcome strengthened the forces opposing both the U.S. military presence and the civil war， placing significant pressure on the United States through public opinion. In a volatile and rapidly changing political environment, both the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Communist Party of China (CPC) sought to leverage public opinion polls to their advantage in the struggle for dominance, positioning themselves as the true representatives of popular sentiment while rallying public support. This contestation was not only a continuation of political jockeying between the KMT and CPC, but also highlighted the growing importance of public opinion and its political significance in China at the time.